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Canada–China trade’s center of gravity shifted decisively westward in 2024, with Alberta emerging as a leading export hub on the strength of energy and commodity shipments. Whether this shift endures into 2025 remains uncertain amid tariff turbulence.

To monitor these dynamics more closely, The China Institute will launch quarterly Canada–China trade reports beginning in Q3 2025, using updated methods to deliver more timely and comprehensive analysis. As a bridge to this new series, the present 2024 report also includes a snapshot of trade data from the first half of 2025.

 
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Executive Summary

• Canada–China trade steady in 2024: Goods trade totalled C$118.71 billion, slipping only 0.9% from previous year. On the surface, the bilateral trade relationship appears stable, resulting in neither a standout success nor a weak spot among Canada’s major trading partners. Yet the seemingly uneventful record may conceal several emerging trends worth close attention as they could have significant policy implications in the future.
• Westward shift in provincial trade with China: In terms of export to China, regional trends highlight a shift toward Western Canada. Alberta led all provinces with 22.8% YoY export (driven by crude oil)^[1] , while Quebec and Ontario saw significant declines amid weaker manufacturing shipments. British Columbia also managed growth (+7.1% YoY) on the strength of coal, copper, and pulp exports, making it the top province by export value.
• Amid a mild decline, Canadian exports to China remain commodity-driven, with crude oil rising to the top-five: Domestic merchandise exports fell 1.97% in 2024 as weaker commodity prices and uneven Chinese demand weighed on Canadian goods. Yet the export mix is changing as crude oil surged as a new category following the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. Canola exports stayed on top at C$3.99 billion, rising 3.9%. However, the ongoing tariffs may reshape Canada’s export landscape in 2025. Imports from China declined, led by consumer electronics but shaped by sector-specific factors: Canadian imports from China fell 0.48% in 2024, with consumer electronics, including cellphones and computers, leading the drop as weaker domestic demand slowed the sales. In contrast, the Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) imports plunged in Q4 in response to Ottawa’s 100% tariff which effectively priced them out of the market.
• Canada’s trade with China is vulnerable to its structural exposure to the US. Approximately 75% of Canada’s intermediate outputs are exported to the US, so any protectionist shock to American demand—such as tariffs or supply chain reconfigurations—may suppress Canadian industrial activity and reduce demand for Chinese components. Thus, Canada-China trade relationship is not merely bilateral, but rather embedded in a trilateral relationship with the US. A major question for the year ahead is how far the second Trump administration’s trade policies will depress Canada-China trade through spillover effects.
• This trade report also provides a preliminary snapshot of Canada–China trade in the first six months of 2025. This data shows an annualized expansion of bilateral trade, albeit with noteworthy month-to-month differences. Beginning this year, the report will shift to a quarterly reporting schedule to capture the fast-evolving dynamics of Canada-China trade.
  
  

^[1] Source: International Trade Center (ITC) calculations based on data, retrieved via TradeMap.

Introduction

This report reviews the state of 2024 Canada-China trade. It highlights the major trends in this bilateral relationship, places them within the broader global trade landscape and examines emerging developments with potential long-term policy implications. Canada–China trade in 2024 held steady near C$118 billion, slipping just 0.9% as falling exports and 100% tariffs on Chinese EV imports were offset by crude oil emerging as a new key export.²

The decline in Canadian exports to China narrowed from 7.59% in H1 to 0.87% by the year’s end. Imports showed a similar trend with the contraction shrinking from 4.20% to 1.75%. As a result, Canada’s trade deficit with China ended the year at one of its historical lows, with November reporting the smallest monthly gap since December 2023. Moreover, China did not stand out in 2024 among Canada’s major trading partners. Both imports and exports posted slight declines, mirroring a broader worldwide slowdown in trade and growth as countries strive to settle into post-pandemic order.

However, these stable top-line trends mask significant regional disparities across Canada. For instance, Alberta saw a substantial export increase of 22.43% from 2023, largely due to surging crude oil shipments after the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. In contrast, traditional major exporters like Quebec and Ontario posted decline as manufacturing shipments weakened. These shifts suggest an emerging westward tilt.

Nevertheless, the Canada–China commercial relationship is likely to face novel headwinds. The relative calm seen in late 2024 has since been disrupted by renewed uncertainties. Regional trade tensions are intensifying under the second Trump administration, adding risks to Canada’s highly integrated supply chains with the US. Ottawa and Beijing have also recently exchanged tariffs on key traded goods—Canada on Chinese electric vehicles and China on Canadian canola and seafood. New protectionist measures on the US side may further weaken Canada-China trade as lower US demand would reduce the need for Chinese inputs used in Canadian products.

^[2] Unless otherwise declared, all data presented in this report is sourced from Statistics Canada. In instances where calculations by the authors are deemed necessary, these have been incorporated.

The report is organized into five sections:

1. Year-End Data: Reviews 2024 bilateral trade flows placed in a two-year timeframe and broader global context.
2. Canadian Exports to China: Examines Canada’s top export categories, shedding light on both traditional strengths and emerging sectors. An overview of the top Canadian export products to China and notable emerging shifts Canadian exports to China in 2023, with a focus on the top exported products.
3. Canadian Imports from China: Analyzes import patterns and the key factors behind the recent decline. An overview of Canadian imports from China in 2023 and the policy and non-policy led factors driving the decline, with a focus on the top imported products.
4. Canada–China Trade: A Two-Year Perspective: An analysis of the prevailing macro trends in bilateral trade over the course of the last 24 months preceding June 2024.
5. Provincial Data: Highlights the regional factors affecting Canada–China trade, focusing on the growing role of western provinces.
6. Summary and Forward Glance: Outlines evolving trade patterns and potential future shifts in Canada-China commerce.
7. H1 2025 Snapshot: Summarizes first half trade trends, highlighting diverging import and export patterns between Canada and China.
8. Appendix: Detailed Provincial Data: Provides an in-depth regional breakdown of Canada-China trade trends.
   
   

1. Year-End Data

A closer look at Canada-China trade flows throughout 2024 reveals a strong performance in goods tied to industrial activity, while consumer goods trade has remained weak. This trend aligns with solid output across the manufacturing and resource extraction sectors in both countries, occurring alongside lagging consumer spending in both Canada and China.

Cumulative bilateral trade between Canada and China in 2024 amounted to C$118.71 billion, which represented a 0.90% YoY contraction in overall trade flows compared to 2023.

2. Canadian Exports to China

By year-end of 2024, the trend of moderate annual contraction in Canadian exports to China that was observed in Q2 2024 was confirmed. Canadian exports to China decreased by 1.97% YoY in 2024, while exports to Canada’s largest trading partner, the US, concurrently expanded by a meager 0.36% YoY and Canadian exports to all countries overall grew by a similarly modest 1.63% YoY. This reflects flatness in Canadian exports in general for 2024 when compared to 2023, despite occasional month-to-month fluctuations throughout the year.

The lack of substantive change in Canadian exports to China by the end of 2024 is largely a reflection of global commodity price trends and China’s current macroeconomic environment.

As commodities constitute the bulk of Canadian goods shipped to China, commodity prices—which are inherently volatile—are influential in determining the total value of these exports. Following a significant uptick driven by post-pandemic volatility and geopolitical shocks, throughout 2024, in contrast to 2023.

China’s economy, although still facing several structural challenges, experienced some moderate stabilization in its economic performance this year. This was particularly evident in value-added industrial output, which , particularly driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing.

In sum, relatively stable commodity prices and tepid demand for imports of key Canadian commodities might have kept Canadian exports to China largely unchanged by the end of 2024. As the graph below shows, exports in 2024 were mostly consistent with those in 2023 even on a month-to-month basis.

Yet again, Canada’s top five exports to China are all commodities.

By the end of 2024, the top Canadian export to China was canola seeds, posting a 3.86% YoY increase with a total value of $3.99 billion. Canola retained its position as the largest Canadian export to China in 2024, with shipments rebounding in the second half of 2024 from weakness in the first six months. The rebound was China’s poor domestic harvest and high palm oil prices, a key canola substitute.^[3]

The second-largest Canadian export to China was coal, which decreased by 9.99% YoY with a corresponding value of $2.74 billion. This ranking for coal is in line with historical norms and is a continuation of the contraction Canadian coal exports to China experienced in 2023. This protracted decline likely reflects an abundance of alternative sources available to Chinese importers, such as Australia, Mongolia, and Russia, all within close geographic proximity to China. However, continued Chinese reliance on coal despite its rapid growth in green energy infrastructure may keep coal a prominent Canadian export to China.

Crude oil overtook iron to become Canada’s third largest exports to China, rising to $2.45 billion from nearly zero in 2023. The value is eighteen times higher than in 2021. Crude oil replacing iron’s place underscores the impacts of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Extension (TMX) project, which adds significant complementarity to Canada–China trade and may offer a potential remedy to Canada’s highly concentrated oil exports. 

Iron slid to the fourth place, witnessing a contraction of 1.61% YoY. The contraction narrowed in the second half of 2024 compared to the first six months, during which iron exports shrank by 13.89% YoY. This aligned with the overall decline in Canada’s exports of iron and is likely caused by a 31% drop in iron prices. However, reached a record 1.24 billion tons in 2024, representing a 4.9% YoY increase from 2023.

Copper ores remained Canada’s fifth largest export China in 2024, registering a 26.81% increase YoY. China accounted for 38.76% of total Canadian copper exports in 2024, which grew at a slower pace of 19.66% YoY. China surpassed Japan as the top export destination of Canadian copper ore for the first time since 2021.^[4] While the trend aligned with China’s increased copper imports and an average annual copper price increase of 3.4%, Canadian shipments accounted for only 1.47% of total Chinese copper imports.

By some measures, gold is Canada’s largest export to China. In Chinese customs data, —by far the top item. This shows up mainly in Chinese, not Canadian, statistics because China records the ultimate country of origin even when the metal passes through intermediaries before arrival.

^[3] It is also plausible that Chinese purchasers imported higher than usual quantities in the final months of 2024 to front-load imports in anticipation of the decision by Chinese authorities to impose tariffs on Canadian canola, which ultimately came to pass in March 2025.

^[4] Sources: International Trade Center (ITC) calculations based on statistics, accessed via .

3. Canadian Imports from China

As with exports, Canadian imports from China saw only a marginal change in 2024 compared to 2023. Unlike exports, this trend was consistent across provinces and regions. Shipments of Chinese goods to Canada picked up in the second half of the year, leaving a modest 0.48% YoY decline by year’s end, compared with a steeper 4.20% YoY drop in the first half of 2024. This pattern was in line with Canada’s imports from other major trading partners. For instance, imports from the US were essentially flat in 2024, rising only 1.02% in 2024Canada’s total imports from all countries grew by 1.65%.

The contraction in Canadian imports from China in 2024 made Canada an outlier compared with many other countries. China’s overall exports in 2024 , with some major destinations, such as the ASEAN countries, .

Overall contraction in Canadian imports from China was relatively small—especially compared to 2023with a 10.98% decline—indicating a moderate stabilization in the flow of Chinese goods to Canada. As shown in the graph below, most months in 2024 saw little variation in imports relative to 2023.

The largest Canadian import from China at year's end 2024 was cellphones, valued at $7.24 billion, up 2.17% YoY. Over the same period, contracted by 1.1% YoY, with falling faster at 8.4% YoY. This suggests that lower cellphone imports from China in 2024 likely reflected a weaker demand in Canada rather than a shift away from Chinese suppliers. It is also worth noting that China remained Canada’s top source of cellphones in 2024, accounting for approximately 52% of Canada’s total cellphones imports.

The second-largest Canadian import from China in 2024 was automatic data processing machines (e.g., computers), which dropped by 6.07% YoY to $4.90 billion. Unlike cellphones, this was a notable decline, as Canada’s total imports of such machines l increased by 5.21% YoY. Emerging competitors, such as the ASEAN economies and Mexico, saw their shipments to Canada grow by a significant rate of and , respectively. This suggests that, unlike cellphones, supply chain reorientation away from China for automatic data processing machines was captured by the import data for 2024.

Toys were the third largest Canadian import from China in 2024, reaching C$1.40 billion. This was up slightly from C$1.38 billion in 2023, a modest 1.7% YoY increase. The near-flat growth suggests that Canadian demand for toys, including dolls, puzzles, and reduced-size models, has essentially stabilized after several years of expansion, reflecting steady consumer spending on household goods.

Electric motor vehicles followed as the fourth largest import, at C$1.37 billion in 2024. This represented a sharp 38.1% YoY contraction from the C$2.21 billion recorded in 2023. The steep decline likely reflects temporary cooling in Canadian EV demand, driven in part by infrastructure bottlenecks and shifts in incentive policies, rather than any erosion of China’s dominant role in supplying competitively priced EVs.

Machines for the reception, conversion, and transmission of data ranked fifth, totalling C$1.27 billion in 2024. Imports in this category fell 30.1% YoY from C$1.82 billion in 2023. This decline suggests that Canadian telecom and networking equipment demand has entered a consolidation phase, as carriers adjusting inventories and regulators take a cautious stance on supply-chain dependencies.

Consumer goods continued to dominate Canada’s top imports from China. Trends in Canadian cellphone imports highlight the enduring presence of Chinese products in the Canadian market compared with other cellphone-producing nations. Conversely, while China remains Canada’s main overseas supplier of automatic data processing machines, emerging hubs, such as the ASEAN nations and Mexico, are expanding their share within the Canadian market. Overall, Canada continues to source many consumer goods predominantly from China.

Post-2024 outcomes will hinge on US tariff policy. As Chinese suppliers , China’s exports have climbed globally. Should the US tariff regime persist, Canada may see continued upward pressure on imports from China.

4. Canada-China Trade: A Two-Year Perspective

Canada–China trade was largely stable month-to-month in 2024, in contrast to the volatility of 2023. The first half of the year saw steady trade, with imports from China peaking in August before dropping sharply in the final quarter. Meanwhile, Canadian exports to China remained mostly flat, bringing the trade deficit to its 2024 low of $2.31 billion in October.

Imports had been rising through October, driven by Canada’s economic recovery and easing global supply chain pressures. However, the downward trend taking shape in autumn 2024 was likely an immediate effect of the October 1 imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, which was a fast-growing import category. Other imports remained consistent with historical norms, suggesting the decline was largely policy-driven. Overall, barring this disruption, Canadian imports from China followed a positive trend in 2024.

The major source of fluctuations in Canada–China trade was commodity price changes, as cyclical swings and external shocks strongly influenced monthly trade values. Notably, exports trended slightly higher in the second half of the year, likely due to the TMX pipeline’s completion in May 2024, which enabled direct crude oil shipments to China. This new export boosted overall volumes, with October 2024 marking the second-highest monthly total in two years ($3.06 billion), which coincided with peak oil shipments.

Taken together, the past two-year trajectory of Canada–China trade reflects a transition from pandemic-driven volatility and correction in 2023 to a significant reconfiguration of trade flows in 2024. The overall flat volumes in 2024 mask profound changes. Notably, crude oil emerged as a new pillar of Canadian trade with China, a development that may fundamentally reshape energy trade between the two countries moving forward. This marks a clear deviation from historical norms, when oil played no role in bilateral trade, and suggests that Canada’s access to Pacific tidewater has opened new avenues for strategic engagement with China and the wider region.

While overall Canadian demand for Chinese imports stabilized in 2024, its makeup shifted. Electronics assembly and final manufacturing increasingly moved to ASEAN countries, and Ottawa’s late-2024 EV tariff hints at a broader protectionist turn, especially in sensitive sectors. Apparent trade stability in headline figures may mask deeper realignments. Bilateral tariffs and evolving Chinese sourcing—favoring suppliers like Australia and Southeast Asia—point to rising competition and potential disruption ahead in 2025.

The reconfiguration also indicates that Canada’s intermediate manufacturing depends on China: Canadian intermediate manufactured goods rely on Chinese intermediate goods, tools, and commodities—from machinery and electronics to auto parts and materials. Because roughly 75% of Canada’s intermediate goods are exported to the United States, US tariffs or slowdowns cut US orders, forcing Canadian producers to trim output and, in turn, their purchases of Chinese inputs. Canada–China trade is therefore mediated by US demand and policy; a bilateral relationship whose import needs are tethered to a third country’s volatility cannot be truly resilient. As the United States turns inward, this dependency becomes a central risk shaping Canada’s trade with China.

5. Provincial Data

Growth in Western Canada’s trade with China is outpacing the rest of the country on the export side, pointing to a structural westward shift in Canada’s China-facing merchandise trade. Geography and sector mix give the western provinces an edge in fast-growing Asian markets, while central and eastern Canada remain more tightly bound to the US even as they continue to engage China through services, research, and high tech. The net result in 2024: Western Canada is ascendant in goods trade with China.

Within that westward tilt, British Columbia and Alberta did the heavy lifting on exports. B.C. retained the top spot at $8.67B (+7.08% YoY), buoyed by coal, copper, and wood pulp demand from China. Alberta surged 22.4% YoY to $6.74B, led by crude shipments ramping up after TMX’s H2 2024 expansion, while most agricultural categories softened; even so, canola recovered late in the year ahead of Q1 2025 Chinese tariffs. Oil is likely poised to continue to grow, as China’s demand for oil remains robust. Saskatchewan moved in the opposite direction (-20.38% YoY to $4.39B), with potash and grains falling amid tougher competition and weaker Chinese demand for some agricultural goods. Central Canada mostly contracted on the export side—Quebec (-10.80%) and Ontario (-14.44%) ––though both maintained niche strengths (e.g., Quebec metals/vehicles, Ontario scrap metals and selected machinery). Smaller provinces were mixed, with P.E.I. (+17.05%) and the Yukon (from a tiny base) bucking the overall decline.

Imports from China tell a more balanced story. Ontario remained the powerhouse buyer at $50.26B (+1.18% YoY), broadly mirroring national import patterns, while edging ahead of its overall import baseline. BC ranked second at $17.71B but fell 8.88% YoY, with a notable drop in Chinese-made passenger vehicles following new Canadian EV tariffs in H2 2024. Quebec rose 4.49% to $12.65B.

Among smaller provinces, movements were often shaped by one-off or sector-specific spikes. Nova Scotia’s imports jumped 25.72% YoY almost entirely because of $252M in ship purchases, even as imports in many household-facing goods fell. Newfoundland & Labrador posted a headline 936.96% surge on the back of petroleum products, ships, and mining-related machinery—aligning with a mining rebound and critical-minerals push. Manitoba and Saskatchewan both contracted modestly on imports despite pockets of industrial demand; New Brunswick also dipped, with softer big-ticket consumer durables offsetting resilient categories like clothing.

Stepping back, 2024’s export data underscore Western Canada’s growing centrality in Canada-China goods trade—anchored by commodities and new energy routes—while the import side reflects Ontario and Quebec’s scale and diverse demand, and province-specific idiosyncrasies elsewhere. In short, exports to China are concentrating further in the West, whereas imports remain dominated by Ontario, BC, and Quebec, with notable policy- and project-driven outliers across other provinces.

6. Summary and Glance Ahead

Canada–China trade in 2024 appeared broadly stable, but beneath the surface it is undergoing a structural reweighting toward Western Canada and a widening divergence from Central Canada’s US-linked manufacturing base. Alberta’s growing energy flows to Asia and British Columbia’s resilient commodity exports stand in contrast to weaker performance in Ontario and Quebec, underscoring the westward tilt of the trade relationship. These shifts are compounded by policy spillovers: US–China tensions and Canadian alignment with them have already reshaped sensitive manufactured categories, while Beijing’s food-security and resilience agenda has made agri-food trade more tactical and volatile.

Looking to 2025, the most likely trajectory is flat overall totals but continued compositional change: Western resource exports expanding their role, manufactured goods facing more selective demand, and periodic shocks from US protectionism or Chinese policy moves. In this environment, predictability and risk management may matter more than headline growth, as Canada’s trade position with China increasingly hinges on external policy currents and the strategic responses of its provinces.

7. H1 2025 Snapshot: First Half of 2025 Shows an Uptick in Imports, While Exports to China Remain Relatively Flat

By mid-2025, Canadian trade with China showed diverging trends between imports and exports. Imports from China continued to expand, rising 7.0% YoY in Q1 2025 and accelerating further to 11.9% YoY in Q2 2025. Exports, meanwhile, also grew but at a slower and more volatile pace, up 19.0% YoY in Q1 but then moderating to 5.9% YoY in Q2^[5].

In the meantime, Canadian trade with China saw divergent quarterly movements. Exports to China, which began strongly in Q1 at 8.07 billion, fell by 2.9% to 7.84 billion in Q2. In contrast, imports from China, already elevated in Q1 at 21.54 billion, surged further by 11.9%, reaching 24.02 billion in Q2.

This divergence reflects a growing trade imbalance with China, as Canada began the year with a narrower gap that expanded further by mid-2025. On the import side, Canada’s steady rise underscores continued imports on Chinese consumer goods and industrial equipment, despite broader geopolitical tensions.

In March 2025, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on several Canadian agricultural and food products, including rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas (100% tariff), and on aquatic products and pork (25%), in response to Canada’s earlier tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. Consistent with the timing of China’s tariff, Canadian exports of oil seeds and related products to China weakened notably in the first half of 2025. After reaching 806,727 in Q1, shipments dropped to 646,723 in Q2, marking a sequential decline of nearly 20%.

In sum, during the first half of 2025, Canada’s imports from China rose steadily, with growth of 7.0% in Q1 and 11.9% in Q2. Exports also increased year-over-year, up 19.0% in Q1, but growth slowed to 5.9% in Q2, pointing to a widening trade gap between the two countries.

^[5] Source: ITC calculations based on Statistics Canada statistics. ​​

8. Appendix: Detailed Provincial Data for 2024

The 2024 provincial data points to a long-term structural shift, with Asia becoming increasingly central to the economic and trade focus of Western Canada.

This shift does not mean eastern and central Canada are unimportant. Ontario and Quebec remain among the single largest provincial importers of Chinese goods. Furthermore, central Canada’s world-class universities, services, and high-tech sectors engage with China in ways not captured by goods trade data. However, in terms of merchandise trade, 2024 shows Western Canada firmly on the rise.

Most of the provinces and territories across Canada in 2024 experienced contraction in their exports to China on an annualized basis, with the exceptions of British Columbia (+8.68% YoY), Alberta (+22.43% YoY), Prince Edward Island (+17.05% YoY), and the Yukon Territory (+24404.00% YoY). 

British Columbia, ranking at the top of the list in its share of the total dollar value of Canadian exports, totaling $8.67 billion, has witnessed a healthy growth rate of 7.08% YoY by year-end 2024. This has largely been driven by , including coal (+0.80% YoY), copper (+27.6 YoY), and chemical wood pulp (+6.6% YoY). While British Columbia’s exports to China grew by 7.08% YoY for the whole of 2024, its concurrently contracted by 3.00% YoY. With its Pacific ports and geographical proximity to Asia, British Columbia has long been Canada’s gateway to China. In 2024, that gateway function grew even more important, and BC’s diverse commodity mix found ready buyers in the Chinese market.

Albertan exports to China rose 22.4% year over year in 2024 to $6.74 billion. As with the national picture, commodities dominated the basket. The largest items were crude oil (YoY n/a), canola (+2.6% YoY), acyclic alcohols (–6.4% YoY), chemical wood pulp (–6.4% YoY), and vegetable oils (–12.4% YoY). The overall gain was led by crude oil shipments, which ramped up after the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion in H2 2024. Agricultural sales generally softened in line with weaker Chinese demand across many farm goods; however, canola rebounded relative to 1H 2024, likely because buyers pulled purchases forward ahead of Chinese tariffs that took effect in Q1 2025. The growth in Alberta’s exports to China outstripped the increase in , which was 4.2% YoY by the end of the year. Alberta exemplified Western Canada’s rising influence in trade with China in 2024.

Exports from Saskatchewan to China declined quite significantly in 2024, posting a contraction of 20.38% YoY for a year-end total of $4.39 billion. Meanwhile, exports from Saskatchewan to all countries total also decreased by 8.4% YoY. The higher rate of contraction in Saskatchewan’s exports to China indicates a decreased demand for Canadian agricultural goods in China for the year given the predominance of agriculture in the province’s overall exports. The largest exports from Saskatchewan to China were canola (+5.8% YoY), vegetable oils (+9.1% YoY), potash (-47.0% YoY), wheat (-22.3% YoY), and barley (-30.6% YoY). The large declines witnessed in some major exports is likely partially driven by competition from other producers, such as in the case of potash, where Russia was able to to levels predating its invasion of Ukraine in 2024.

Quebec ranked as the province with the fourth-most exports to China in 2024, totaling $3.79 billion, representing a contraction of 10.80%. For comparison, Quebec’s increased by 4.6% YoY over the same period. The were iron (+0.4% YoY), ores (+0.4% YoY), passenger vehicles (+4.9% YoY), edible meat (-4.6% YoY), and wood pulp (-10.4% YoY). This represents a slowdown compared to the first half of 2024, which saw much larger annualized increases in most major export categories, although this is likely partially attributable to the low-base effect of the first half of 2023.

Ontario has the fifth largest value of exports to China in 2024, with a value of $3.01 billion, which was a decrease of 14.44% YoY. Over the same period, grew by 1.2% YoY, indicating a markedly weak performance for the province’s exports to China compared to this baseline. in dollar value terms were scrap copper (+20.6% YoY), medication (+17.2% YoY), passenger vehicles (-34.8% YoY), plastic manufacturing equipment (+98.7% YoY), and scrap aluminum (+41.4% YoY). The robust performance of the majority of the top performing exports has been balanced out by contractions in export categories with lower nominal value, such as plants and seeds (-41.9% YoY), unwrought nickel (-53.3% YoY), and centrifuges (-30.0% YoY). Nonetheless, it is clear that certain subsets of Ontario’s metals and manufacturing sectors enjoyed success in the Chinese market in 2024.

Manitoba ranked after Ontario, exporting a total of $1.60 billion in merchandise to China in 2024, representing a contraction of 12.49% YoY. Concurrently, decreased by 4.0% YoY, meaning that Manitoban exports to China performed worse compared to the baseline. The in 2024 were canola (-0.1% YoY), soya beans (-25.1% YoY), wheat (-16.5% YoY), pork (+4.7% YoY), and ores (-25.2% YoY). The dominant position historically held by canola in Manitoban exports to China has meant that its decline throughout last year contributed significantly to the overall decrease in the province’s exports to China by year-end.

Following Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador exported $738.63 million of goods to China in 2024, declining by 4.99% YoY. By the end of 2024, increased by 10.2% YoY. The throughout last year were iron (-17.9% YoY), crustaceans (+28.6% YoY), unwrought nickel (+10.3% YoY), fish (+67.8% YoY), and mollusks (-12.5% YoY). Newfoundland and Labrador’s seafood exports to China increased, while those in Nova Scotia and other provinces declined. This may be attributed to a low-base effect in the case of Newfoundland and Labrador, wherein exports of seafood and supply was interrupted due to a pricing dispute between fishers and seafood processors in the province, which was resolved in 2024. One potential source of future growth in exports to China from Newfoundland and Labrador was Ottawa’s decision in July 2024 to in the province, which will ostensibly increase the supply of cod moving forward.

Nova Scotia’s exports to China decreased by 10.67% YoY in 2024, for a total of $694.96 million of merchandise. This occurred against the backdrop of increasing by 2.0% YoY by the end of the year, highlighting an underperformance in the province’s exports to China. The over the 12-month period were crustaceans (-12.1% YoY), mollusks (-11.2% YoY), copper (-4.8% YoY), scrap copper (+193.0% YoY), and fish (-38.4% YoY). It is of interest that seafood exports to China declined in Nova Scotia in 2024, given the in the Chinese market in recent years.

Looking forward, in March 2025, China imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian seafood exports. This will have a significant downward impact on trade between the Maritime provinces–including Nova Scotia–and China, as seafood exports constitute the bulk of their exports to China.

This drop coincided with decreased demand for Nova Scotian lobster in China, as the country , such as Vietnam. This is reinforced by the fact that Nova Scotia’s crustacean exports to other markets, such as the US and the Netherlands, , which indicates that this could be reflective of decreased Chinese demand due to increased availability of substitutes. Furthermore, in 2024 have led to decreased demand for this product. The decrease in crustacean exports drove the reduction of Nova Scotian exports to China in 2024, given that this product category represented 86.17% of exports, with crustacean exports to China from Nova Scotia totaling $600.64 million in 2024.

New Brunswick ranked after Nova Scotia, with the province exporting $201.95 million of goods to China in 2024, which represented a decline of 10.56% YoY. Meanwhile, increased by 3.3% YoY over the same period. The by year-end 2024 were dissolving grade chemical wood pulp (+32.0% YoY), crustaceans (-48.6% YoY), fish (+1719.4% YoY), non-dissolving grade chemical wood pulp (-27.0% YoY), and newsprint (-82.1% YoY). The sharp increase in fish exports may have benefited from the sectoral tailwinds and the New Brunswick provincial government’s for the province’s salmon farming industry.

Prince Edward Island’s exports to China in 2024 bucked the national trend, increasing by a strong 17.05% YoY for a total of $41.53 million. The province’s exports to China outperformed its , which increased by 8.3% YoY over the same period. The in 2024 were crustaceans (+20.0% YoY), gas turbines (+65.1% YoY), organo-sulphur compounds (+110.1% YoY), vegetable oils (+11.4% YoY), and laboratory reagents (-13.8% YoY).

Finally, the territories, which exported negligible amounts of goods to China in 2024, rank last in terms of value. The Northwest Territories’ exports to China contracted by 20.06% YoY for a total value of $279,490 in 2024, by archaeological artifacts (-47.6% YoY), fish (N/A), and chemical analysis instruments (N/A). Nunavut’s exports to China declined precipitously by 98.82% YoY corresponding to $140,610, consisting of archaeological artifacts (N/A), lumber (N/A), furskin clothing (N/A), whalebone (N/A), and electric lamps (N/A). The Yukon Territory exported $18,380 of goods to China.^[6]

Unlike provincial exports to China, the spread of provinces that witnessed shrinkage versus growth in their imports from China in 2024 is more balanced. Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, the Yukon Territory and Nunavut all experienced increases of varying degrees in their imports from China by year-end. On the other hand, British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick all saw their imports from China decrease on an annualized basis.

Ontario imported the most goods from China in 2024, totaling $50.26 billion, which represented an increase of 1.18% YoY. Meanwhile, grew by 0.6% YoY over the same period, meaning that Chinese imports marginally outperformed the baseline. The were cellphones (-3.2% YoY), automatic data processing machines (-8.9% YoY), vehicle parts (-3.9% YoY), electric batteries (+38.5% YoY), and furniture (-4.9% YoY). 

Reflecting its economic and demographic weight, Ontario’s Chinese import profile largely tracks national trends. Standouts included electrical machinery (+19.5% YoY) and pipe valves (+6.0% YoY).

British Columbia imported the second-most merchandise from China in 2024, with the province’s imports from China declining by 8.88% YoY, which amounted to $17.71 billion. British Columbia’s imports from all countries total for 2024 decreased by 1.4% YoY. The for the year were passenger vehicles (-35.0% YoY), automatic data processing machines (+5.7% YoY), toys (+2.2% YoY), furniture (+5.8% YoY), and lamps (+28.2% YoY). The rebound in many major import categories seen in the second half of 2024 was offset by the significant decline in Chinese-made passenger vehicle imports, which is a result of the imposition of tariffs on Chinese-produced EVs by the Canadian government in H2 2024.

Quebec ranked as the province with the third-largest value of imports from China in 2024, with a total of $12.65 billion, which was an increase of 4.49% YoY. By the end of 2024, expanded by 1.3% YoY, thus illustrating a slight overperformance by Chinese imports to the province. The in this period were airplane parts (+53.6% YoY), aluminum plating and sheets (+35.9% YoY), vehicle parts (+7.7% YoY), furniture (+13.3% YoY), and carbon electrodes (-38.2% YoY). Quebec’s aerospace and automotive industries are , which helps to account for the increase in imports of merchandise pertinent to manufacturing in these sectors. For example, aerospace firm Bombardier, a pillar of Quebec industry, reported a by the end of Q2 2024. Quebec’s aerospace industry has also attracted large amounts of investment capital in 2024, notably .

Following Quebec, Alberta imported the fourth-most merchandise from China in 2024, amounting to $4.70 billion, which was a 6.04% YoY contraction. For the whole of 2024, shrank by 3.0% YoY. The last year were pressure reducing valves (+4.3% YoY), vehicle parts (+19.9% YoY), acrylic polymers (+60.8% YoY), seats (+9.0% YoY), and tubes and pipes (-38.3% YoY). A favourable business climate in Alberta throughout most of 2024 has contributed to large increases in industrial goods purchased by firms (e.g., insulated cables (+22.1% YoY)). However, , despite strong population growth, has dragged down overall import numbers as many consumers opted to defer purchases momentarily last year, which is likely reflected in many major consumer goods imports from China to Alberta (e.g., cellphones (-33.5% YoY)).

By year-end 2024, Manitoba imported $1.68 billion in goods from China, which represented a decline of 1.52% YoY. Over the same period, increased marginally by 0.5% YoY. The top five goods in 2024 were drills and pneumatic tools (+0.4% YoY), automatic data processing machines (-12.8% YoY), electric motor parts (+32.4% YoY), tractor parts (+15.0% YoY), and gas turbines (+24.6% YoY). The expansion seen in imports of many industrial goods in Manitoba last year was likely driven by an . The in Manitoba has also given households more purchasing power relative to other provinces, which is perhaps salient in explaining the province’s increased imports of consumer goods from China, such as sports equipment (+6.8% YoY).

Nova Scotia’s imports from China performed strongly in 2024, with a total value of $757.07 million and growing by an impressive 25.72%. For comparison, concurrently shrank by 2.3% YoY. The were ships (N/A), fish fillets (-30.4% YoY), air conditioners (+72.8% YoY), tires (+10.6% YoY), and vehicle parts (+0.3% YoY). Most imported goods, particularly those intended for consumption by households, declined on an annualized basis, which was potentially driven by in the province throughout the year. The main outlier in the pattern of imported goods from China is that of ships, which were the largest import with a total value of $251.94 million; there were no growth statistics since there were no imports of Chinese-produced ships in 2023. The value of ships imported from China dwarfed other imports, given that the second-largest import, fish fillets, had a total value of $39.77 million. Therefore, it can be said that the impressive performance of overall imports from China to Nova Scotia in 2024 was disproportionately driven by the purchase of ships, whereas other imported goods performed relatively poorly across the board.

Saskatchewan imported $503.24 million in merchandise from China in 2024, which represented a decline of 10.63% YoY. Meanwhile, increased by 4.1% YoY by the end of 2024. The in 2024 were insecticides (-45.5% YoY), tires (-9.7% YoY), industrial machinery parts (-18.6% YoY), agricultural machinery parts (+9.7% YoY), and valves (+89.3% YoY). Strong growth in imports of many industrial goods was likely induced by , which included the provincial construction sector growing at its fastest pace in 15 years, with ongoing work at the Jansen Mine project being particularly noteworthy. Consumer spending remains strong in the province, in large part due to Saskatchewan’s low cost of living, which is reflected in a growth of 43.8% YoY in cellphones imported from China. However, a significant decline in imports of insecticides from China (-45.5% YoY), which is the province’s single largest Chinese import, has dragged down overall import numbers despite growth in other imported merchandise.

New Brunswick’s imports from China contracted by 12.15% YoY in 2024, amounting to a total of $108.06 million. For comparison, grew by 7.1% YoY over the same period. The were clothing (+9.2% YoY), air conditioners (-6.7% YoY), bulldozers (+58.5% YoY), vehicle parts (-14.4% YoY), and furniture (-7.8% YoY). New Brunswick’s economy , with large population growth and low household debt levels supporting growth. Although healthy spending on consumer goods such as clothing is reflected in the pattern of imports from China in 2024, declining imports of more expensive and durable goods from China has been seen in the province, such as with air conditioners.

Following New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador imported a total of $89.64 million in merchandise from China in 2024, which represented a staggering growth rate of 936.96% YoY. At the same time, the also grew by an impressive 58.7% YoY, illustrating a considerable outperformance of Chinese goods in the Newfoundland and Labrador market. The throughout 2024 were petroleum products (+61,268,526.5% YoY), ships (N/A), mineral processing machinery (+22,540.3% YoY), handling machinery (N/A), and iron chains (+611.9% YoY). Not only did imported goods directly related to extractive industries such as mining grow by considerable amounts, but products not previously imported in 2023 (e..g, handling machinery and ships) have become among the largest imports from China into the province last year. This development was likely driven by the , which is strategically buttressed by increased mineral investment expenditure provided by the .

Prince Edward Island imported a total of $1.63 million of goods from China in 2024, which was a significant increase of 420.51% YoY. Over the same period, the also grew by 5.2% YoY. The top goods imported from China by Prince Edward Island in 2024 were phenol alcohols (N/A), carboxylic acids (N/A), organo-sulphur compounds (+266,772.0% YoY), heterocyclic compounds (+345.2% YoY), and printed books (N/A). The considerable growth in overall imports was driven almost entirely by phenol alcohols and carboxylic acids, together totaling $1.24 million, which represented 76.1% of total Prince Edward Island imports from China. Thus, this is likely reflective of an uptick within specific sectors of the provincial economy and not reflective of wider macroeconomic trends.

Among the territories, the Yukon Territory and Nunavut saw increases in their imports from China whereas the Northwest Territories did not import any Chinese goods. The Yukon Territory imported $775,580 of goods, which represented a 50.88% YoY increase. The in 2024 were construction equipment (+28.1% YoY), tractors (N/A), valves (N/A), screws and bolts (+556.4% YoY), and cellphones (N/A). Nunavut’s imports from China in 2024 totaled $9190 and grew by 50.69% YoY. This was driven entirely by one imported good category: automatic data processing machines (N/A). While ROW trade with China increased, aside from the US, Canada-China trade remained flat.

^[6]  This represents an increase of 24404.00% YoY, although this is entirely attributable to the low-base effect as the territory exported a mere $75 of merchandise to China in 2023. The Yukon Territory’s exports to China in 2024 included printed circuits (N/A) and surveying instruments (N/A).